Should Income Support Program Continue?

PPP government started a scheme with the name of Benazir Income Support Program.  Under this program PKR1000 is to be doled out to people having family income below PKR6000. 

BISP was initiated in October 2008 with an initial allocation of Rs.34 billion (US $ 425 million approximately) for the financial year 2008-09. The Programme aimed at covering 3.5 million families in the financial year 2008-2009. 

Taking 3.5 families as beneficiary and an amount of PKR1000 per family; total amount comes out to be 28 billion. This indicates that an amount 6 billion has been spent elsewhere taking the overheads to be 21.5%. By not initiating this program government would not have borrowed 34 billion, almost 21.8% less to meet its budget deficit.

Allocation for the financial year 2012-13 is Rs. 70 billion to provide cash assistance to 5.5 million families, which constitutes almost 18% of the entire population. The Programme aims at covering almost 40% of the population below the poverty line, that is 72 million people. Considering four people to a household gives a target of 18 million. At current rate amount required to provide this subsistence will be PKR259 trillion per annum 

It is imperative to analyse whether PKR1000 has benefited any of those who earned below PKR6000 (US$86).  Over these five years buying power of people has reduced with an average rate of 10% per annum.  So the first year a family earning PKR6000 had PKR7000, but their buying power was reduced to PKR6300. This means their original buying power went down to PKR5400. Today the same family holds original buying power of around PKR4150 (US$38.6), inclusive of BISP. 

A macro analysis confirms failure of this program in reducing poverty.  It has resulted in an increase in unwanted state expenses.  Had this money not been disbursed, devaluation of Pak Rupee would have been far less and so are the interests paid by government on loans. There would not have been requirement of printing more then required currency notes for circulation, thus would have helped keeping buying power more stable for common man.

This government, instead of shutting down this evil economic program has further increased the amount of dole, to gain political objectives. Objective is make people beggars and treat them as their political slaves.

Carvers of Pakistan’s Current Situation

 

Pakistan was one of the most enterprising countries in the world. It was reckoned as land of doctors and engineers in the western world.  It played pivotal role in establishing starring commercial ventures for the countries like UAE & Singapore. It was also instrumental in development of desert lands into what is known to be one of the leading urban areas. It has abundance of natural resources worth billions of Dollars and human resource, which is jubilantly celebrated as intelligent young software engineers, high achieving ACCAs, , sportsmen, engineers, doctors and soldiers. It holds one of the largest youth human resource, when most of the countries in the world are short of effective manpower for future.

Natural and Human resources are key to accelerated development of a country. Yet this country still stands in the line of developing/ under developed countries, after 66 years of sovereignty. Time and again, this issue has been touched upon halfheartedly and abandoned; most of the times blame is apportioned to dictators and politicians. Though incompetence of governing faction cannot be overruled; but, those who are the real culprits to bring down Pakistan to the brink of destruction are always allowed to go scot free.   

In true sense it is the bureaucracy of this country who with the connivance of their subordinates has de-shaped and damaged this country.  Had state machinery been functioning as per the vision of Quid-e-Azam, despite all the traitors, Pakistan would have joined the ranks of most developed nations in the world.

Quid-e-Azam’s expectation from civil servants was spell out by him at  Peshawar in April 1948:

  ‘The reason why I am meeting you is that I wanted to say a few words to you who are occupying very important positions in the administration of this province. The first thing that I want to tell you is that you should never be influenced by any political pressure, by any political party or any individual politician. If you want to raise the prestige and greatness of Pakistan you must not fall victim to any pressure but do your duty as servants of the people and the state, fearlessly and honestly.

The services are the backbone of the state. Governments are formed. Governments are defeated. Prime Ministers come and go, ministers come and go, but you stay on. Therefore, there is a very great responsibility placed on your shoulders. You should have no hand in supporting this political party or that political party, this political leader or that political leader. This is not your business.

Whichever government is formed according to the constitution, and who ever happens to be the prime minister or minister, coming into power in the ordinary course, your duty is only to serve that government loyally and morally but, at the same time, fearlessly, maintaining your high reputation, your prestige, your honour and the integrity of your service. If you start with that determination, you will make a great contribution to the building up of Pakistan of our conceptions and our dream-a glorious state and one of the greatest nations in the world. 

While impressing this upon you, I wish also to take the opportunity of impressing upon our leaders and politicians in the same way, that if they ever try to interfere with you and bring political pressure to bear upon you, which leads to nothing but corruption, bribery and nepotism-which is a horrible disease and for which not only your province but others too are suffering-if they try to interfere with you in this way, I say they are doing nothing but disservice to Pakistan.

I hope that each of you will understand his own sphere of duty and responsibility and act with others harmoniously in complete cooperation, keeping in mind that each has to do his duty within the sphere to which he belongs, if on your part start with that determination and enthusiasm – and I hope the other side will also realize what a terrible evil they are raising up and how it demoralizes the services to try and influence this department or that departments, this office or that officer-and if you stick to your determination you will have done a great service to your nation. Putting pressure on service people is, I know, a very common fault of politicians and those with influence in political parties, but I hope you will now, from today, resolve and determine to act according to the humble advice I am giving you.

May be some of you may fall victim for not satisfying the whims of ministers. I hope it does not happen, but you may even be put to trouble not because you are doing anything wrong but because you are doing right.

Sacrifices have to be made, and I appeal to you, to come forward if need be to make the sacrifice and face the position of being put on the black list or being otherwise worried or troubled. If some of you will give me the opportunity of your sacrifice, believe me we will find a remedy for that very soon. I tell you that you will not remain on the black list if you discharge your duties honestly, sincerely and loyally to the state. It is you who can give us the opportunity to create a powerful machinery which will give you complete sense of security.’ 

To comprehend and understand his vision of a civil servant’s character, it is necessary to go through an extract from Shahabnama by Qurdratullah Shahab, an ICS officer.

۔اس بار جو میں نے چیف منسٹر کے کاغذات کا جاٗزہ لیا تو ان میں ایک عجیب دستاویز ہاتھ اّیٗ ۔ یہ چھ صفحات کا ساٗکلوسٹاٗلڈ انتہایٗ خفیہ  حکم نامہ تھا۔ جو کانگرسی چیف منسٹروں کے نام اس ہدایت کے ساتھ جاری کیا گیا تھا کہ ہر چیف منسٹر اسے اپنی ذاتی تحویل میں رکھے۔ اس میں لکھا تھا کہ تقسیم ہند کا معاملہ تقریباّ تے پا چکا ہے۔ اس لیے جن صوبوں میں کانگرس کی وذارتیں قاٗہٗم ہیں وہاں پر مسلمان افسروں کو کلیدی عہدوں سے تبدیل کر دیا جا ےٗ ۔ خاص طور پر ہوم ڈپارٹمنٹ، فنانس ڈپارٹمنٹ اور پریس ڈپارٹمنٹ  میں با اعتماد ہندو افسروں کو تعینات کیا جاےٗ ۔ ڈی سی، آیٗ جی اور ایس پی عموماّ ہندو ہوں۔  تھانوں کے انچارج بھی زیادہ سے زیادہ ہندو ہوں۔ مھکمہ پولیس می اور ضلعی انتظامیہ میں مسلمانوں کو فیلڈ ورک سے ہٹا کر بے ضرر قسم کے دفتری کام کاج پر لگا دیا جاےٗ ۔ پولیس کی نفرے میں مسلمان سپاہیوں کو بتدریج غیر مسلح کر کے پولیس لاہٗن اور تھانوں کے اندر معمولی فراہٗض پر مامور کیا جاےٗ ۔ جن صوبوں میں سرحدی مسلمانوں سے بھرتی شدہ ماوٗنٹڈ ملٹری پولیس ہے، اسے فوراّ توڑ دیا جاےٗ۔ اور افسروں اور نفری کو اختتام ملازمت کی مناسب رقم یکمشت ادا کرکے رخصت کر دیا جاےٗ۔ سرکاری خزانوں، اسلحہ خانوں اور محکمہ مال کے ریکارڈ آفسوں کی حفاظت کےلیےٗ ہندو گارڈ تعینات کےٗ جاہٗیں۔ اسلحہ رکھنے والے مسلمان لاہٗسنس ہولڈرز کی نقل و حرکت کی نگرانی کی جاےٗ۔ ایسے ہنگا می منصونے تیار رکھے جاہٗیں جن کے تحت ان لہٗسنسداروں سے قلیل ترین نوٹس پر ھر قسم کا اسلحہ قریبی تھانے میں جمع کرایا جاسکے۔ کاروں، بسوں، ٹیکسیوں اور ٹرکوں کے مسلمان مالکوں کی فہرستیں بنا کر ان پر کڑی نظر رکھی جاےٗ۔ مسلمان آتش بازوں کے لاہٗسنس معطل کر دیےٗ جایٗں، اور ان کا آتش گیر سٹاک فوری طور پر پولیس کی حفاظت میں لے لیا جاےٰ ۔ وغیرہ، وغیرہ ۔ ھر چیف منسٹر کو نہایت سخت تاکید کی گیٗ تھی کہ وہ ان ہدایات پر ایسی خوش اسلوبی سے عملدرآمد کرے کہ اس سے آبادی کے کسی فرقے کے خلاف کسی کے امتیازی سلوک کا پہلو مترستٓح نہ ہو! بغل میں چھری اور منہ میں رام رام کا اس سے بہتر ظہور چشم تصور میں لانا محال ہے۔

یہ حکمنامہ پڑھ کر مجھے شدید ذہنی دھچکا لگا۔  مہاتما گاندھی کی نام نہاد بے تعصبی کی لنگوٹی باد مخالف کے جھونکوں میں اڑ کر دور جا پڑی، اور وہ اپنے اصلی رنگ و سوغن میں بالکل بہنہ ہوگےٗ۔ اہنسا پرم دھرم کے اس جھوٹے پجاری کے اشاروں پر ناچنے والی انڈین نیسشنل کانگرس کے عزاہٗم مسلمانوں کے خلاف اتنے ہی خطرناک اور سنگین نکلے جتنے کہ ہندومہلسبھایاراشٹریہ سیوک سنگ کے سمجھے جاتے تھےأ بلکہ کانگرس کے سازشانہ منصوبوے دوسری فرقہ وارانہ جماوروں سے بھی زیادہ پر خطر اور ہولناک تھے، کیونکہ ہندوستان کے کیٗ صوبوں میں کانگرس کی حکومت تھی، اور مرکز کی عبوری گورنمنٹ میں ۱۴ میں سے چھ کانگرسی اور مذید دو غیر مسلم وزیر تھے۔ فوج کا محکمہ سردار بلدیو سنگھ کے قبضے میں تھا۔ اور سارا ہندوستالن کی پولیس، سی آی ڈی،ریڈیو اور ذرایعؑ ابلاغ کی مشین سردار دلبھ بھایٗ پٹیل کے متعصبانہ ہاتھوں ممیں تھی۔ اس میں کویٗ شک نہیں کہ کانگرس اپنی قوت کے تمام وساٗل مسلمانوں کا سر کچلنے کے لےٗ ہر طرح کے کیل کانٹے س لیس ہو رہی تھی۔

یہ دستاویزپڑھ کر میرے دل میں ایک عجب سی کشمکش ہوتی رہی۔ ڈپٹی ہوم سیکریٹریکا پیشہ ورانہ ضمیر میرے اندر چھپے ہوےٗ بے عمل، ناقص اور خوابیدہ سے مسلمان کے ضمیرکے ساتھ ٹکرا کیا۔ خدا کا شکر کے کہ تھوڑی سی لڑایٗ کے بعد جیت ٹوٹے پھوٹے مسلمان ہی کی ہویٗ۔ چناچہ میں نے یہ دستاویز اٹھا کر اپنی جیب میں ڈال لی، اور اسی رات قاۃٗد اعظم سے ملاقات کرنے کی نیتّ سے دہلی روانہ ہو گیا۔

 ان دنوں مٹر کے۔ایچ۔ خورشید قاۃٗد اعظم کے پراہٗیوٹ سیکریٹری تھے۔ اگر وہ دہلی میں موجود ہوتے تہ غالباّ مجھے قاہٗد اعظم  سے ملنے میں کوہٗی دقت پیش نہ آتی ۔ لیکن وہ موجود نہ تھے۔  ایک دو روز کی تگ و دو، منت ماجت اور حیلے بہانوں کے بعد آخر بڑی مشکل سے مجھے  قاہٗد اعظم تک رسایٗ حاصل ہویٗ۔  جب میں ان کے کمرے میں داخل ہوا تو بولے، ۔ کیا بات ھے؟ ۔ ـ ۔سر، میں آپ کے لیٗے ایک مفید دستاویز لے کر آیا ہوں۔ میرا نام قدرت اللہ شہاب ہے۔ میں اڑیسہ میں ڈپٹی ہوم سکریٹری ہوں۔ ۔ میں نے ایک ہی سانس میں زیادہ سے زیادہ باتیں کہنے کی کوشش کی۔

۔کیسی دستاویز؟(MAJ)ـ

میں نے آگے بڑھ کر کانگرس کا سرکلر ان کی خدمت میں پیش کیا۔ وہ بڑے سکون سے اسے پڑھتے رھے۔ میں کھڑا ہوا ان کے چہرے کا جاہٗزہ لیتا رہا۔ ان کے جذبات میں ہلکا سا ارتعاش بھی پیدا ہوا ۔ ایک بار پڑھ  چکے تو مجھے کرسی پر بیٹھنے کا اشارہ کیا، اور فرمایا ۔ ۔ ہاں، یہ ہمارے لیےٗ مفید ہو سکتی ھے ۔ ـ

یہ کہہ کر وہ دوبارہ اس کے مطالعے میں مصروف ہو گےٗ۔  اس کے بعد مجھ سے دریافت کیا۔ ـ تم نے کہاں سے حاصل کی ہے؟ ـ

میں نے فر فر ساری کہانی سنا ہٗی۔

(MAJ)ـ ویل ویل ۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔ تمہیں ایسا نہیں کرنا چاہیے تھا ـ

[1]“ This is breach of Trust”

This incident clearly defines his vision, expectation and requirement of a civil servant, where under most crucial situation, when Indian National Congress was conspiring against Pakistan, even before its creation and was cheating its Muslim supporters; he continued to profess Trust and did not approve its breach by a civil servant.

Had the civil servants been dutiful, Pakistan would not have had illegal constructions, encroachments, traffic jams, blatant corruption.  It is these bureaucrats who violated the code of conduct given to them by Quid-e-Azam and involved themselves in protecting violators of building control. It is under their shadows illegal arms came into the cities and it is under their patronization encroachments take place in each and every nuke and corner of this country.

Simple examples of their misdeeds can be seen in everyday life.  Just to enumerate a few:

Professional beggary on the roads of this country is increasing. Their existence on roads is not only nuisance for commuters, but also helps criminals in conducting their activities in broad day light. Laws exist to remove such people from the roads and it is well within the powers of these government servants to enforce it. What is stopping them to take action?  Two reasons either their own vested interest or political pressure; or perhaps combination of both.  There goes vision of Quid which he outlined in 1948.

All cities of this country are full of dangerous, unhealthy and illegal constructions.  Laws exist to control such activities; yet, every day a new structure or business venture is created.  Actions against such constructions are avoided for self-interest and gratification.  Had service preceded self, cities of Pakistan would have been as organized as any other western country.

Traffic menace, especially major cities, is a gift of these civil servants.  Administrators allow encroachments of roads by car dealers, vendors & illegal parking agents. Traffic police is not concerned about violation of traffic rules; rather lead them by example.

This elite class retire as millionaires through ill-gotten wealth and at the end these so called intellectuals become analyst and preach solutions to the problems faced by Pakistan, to which they are the major contributors.

No political government can do corruption without support of bureaucracy. They are the ones who teach them ways to do corruption and support politicians in execution of corrupt plans. If all bureaucrats work as per the vision of Quid; how many can be blacklisted by politicians.  Lovers of power corridor cannot damage infrastructure of their own salvation as politicians. No doubt, difficulties will arise, but that is what will turn Quid-e-Azam’s dream into reality.

‘I tell you that you will not remain on the black list if you discharge your duties honestly, sincerely and loyally to the state. It is you who can give us the opportunity to create a powerful machinery which will give you complete sense of security.’ M A Jinnah 

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[1] Shahabnama 29^th Edition 2005 Page 265-267

Fair and Reasonable Taxation

Fair and Reasonable Taxation

According to CIA statistics, Pakistan’s a per capita income is estimated at US$2900[1]. Considering this income calculated on a population of 160 million indicates a consolidated number of US$ 464 billion. Current exchange rate applied to this figure, corresponds to PKR 46 trillion. Theoretically speaking, Government of Pakistan can earn revenue of PKR4600 Billion for fiscal year 2013-14 by collecting 10% income tax on PKR46 Trillion, which is PKR 614 Billion more then Budget 2013-14 projected expense of PKR3985.4 Billion.

Unfortunately, this simple trick to have surplus income cannot be implemented.  Sixty percent of Pakistan's population is living below poverty line[2]. International poverty line is at income of two dollars or PKR 200 a day.  Total Income of 60% Pakistanis (living below poverty line) is approximately US$70 billion per annum; it is their right to claim tax exemption. Tax Exemption for population below poverty line leaves PKR45.9Trillion as taxable income.  Thus 40% of Pakistan population falls in the ambit of tax net, equaling 64 million people.

An average Pakistani household has under 4 members; for calculation sake, considering 6 member per household with one earning member (2007-2008 figures)[3], 16 million people earn PKR 45.9 Trillion in Pakistan, whereas only 1.7 million pay taxes i.e. 10%. According to budget it is estimated that an amount of PKR914 Billion will be collected under income tax. These statistics indicate that PKR914 billion is contributed by 10% of tax payers. Question arises where does remaining 90% tax payers have gone and why they are not paying any income tax. 

%age of Tax Payers	Tax Paid in PKR Billion
10% (A)	914
90% (B)	914X9 = 8226
Total Budget Expense (C)	3985.4
Surplus (A+B-C)	5154.6

Both the above scenarios indicate sufficient revenue generation with reasonable tax rate, no sales tax, and enough surplus to support high investment projects like bullet trains underground subways, better health and education facilities for all.   It will also provide relief to those who are already paying taxes and have been taxed directly or indirectly 30- 40% in current budget revenue generation schemes.

Finance Minister in his budget speech stated that regular tax payers have not been taxed any further; yet, bottom line remains that those paying taxes have been taxed further.   Lets have a look at the gift government has given to genuine tax payers.

“Final Tax Regime” was introduced by Gen (R)Pervaiz Musharaf; prior to FTR, surplus income tax deposited / deducted was never refunded, at least not to original tax payers.  “Final Tax Regime” came as a relief to genuine tax payers, where withholding agents were authorized to give tax credit based on evidence provided.  Withdrawal of Final Tax Regime will burden those who pay taxes and file return regularly. Under present scheme each year tax withheld would invariably be more then the obligation. History suggests that this surplus amount will never be reimbursed, at least not to the original payer.  It has opened gates to yet another way of syphoning public money by holders of public offices and provides opportunity to corrupt officials to exercise their powers in self-interest.

Wealth tax was withdrawn in Gen (R) Musharaf’s era on the pretext of double taxation, as wealth declared is after tax has been paid. Those who have black money do not declare their wealth in “Wealth Statement”.  In current budget an Income Support Levy has been imposed at the rate of 0.5% on all moveable assets above one million, that too w.e.f. from June 2013.  It is a known fact that Wealth Statement is filed by only those who pay income tax and file IT return. Thus, genuine tax payers are squeezed yet again to compensate for those who evade tax.

Profit earned by Corporates is distributed among shareholders; most of the time these are individuals who have invested money and are enjoying return on their investment, in shape of dividends.  Finance Bill 2013-14 has reduced tax rate for Corporates by 1%.  Thus, benefit is for those, whose majority does not works and rely on income from dividend.  On the other hand, burden to meet short fall has been shifted on regular tax payers, especially salaried class.

Engro paid PKR2,015 million as tax for year 2012, at a tax rate of 35%.  If, Engro’s taxable income is same for 2013, it will have tax liability less by one percent, against 2012.  This reduction in tax rate will allow Engro PKR57.57 Million an additional after tax profit, which ultimately goes to shareholders as dividend.  To compensate for this amount, a large number of salaried tax payers have to contribute. A sample of salaried people required to compensate for this short fall is:

Monthly Salary	Number of  Salaried Person needed to cater for PKR 57.57 Billion	Monthly Salary	Number of  Salaried Person needed to cater for PKR 57.57 Billion
35,000	57,570	100,000	853
40,000	14,393	150,000	411
50,000	4,606	200,000	245
60,000	2,678	300,000	118
70,000	1,828	400,000	71
80,000	1,323	500,000	51

Had corporates been taxed by another 1%, relief could be vice-e-versa.  Such measures of giving relief to Corporates are expressive of rulers’ mentality, competence and intentions. This is case of a single Corporate.  A large number of public and private limited companies operate in Pakistan and earn profits in billions.

Government had been showing intent to increase tax net since long. However, practically the pace of including all eligible tax payers in tax net is rather slow. This slow process is because of multiple reasons like political influence and corrupt tax officials. 

An out of the box thinking can change perspective of complete income tax system.  At one hand, all direct and indirect taxes can be abolished in one go and on the other maximum number of people can be brought in tax net. A simple system can replace prevailing complicated and inefficient system, yet effective enough to generate sufficient funds. Implementation of such system should not be any problem in this era of technology.

Solution to a simple and efficient tax collection system is three step formula.

1.       Abolish prevailing income tax, sales tax, FED, Income Support levy etc.  and implement Final Tax Regime.

2.       Implement policy of no cash transaction for amounts more than PKR5000. The policy already exists for corporates, which should be extended it to individual as well.

3.       Put a tax of 2% on all (in and out) transactions through banks.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan total amount transacted through banks between July-Sept’12 was PKR 40.549 Trillion[4]. It can be safely estimated that PKR162.199 trillion was transacted in year 2012. Thus, PKR3.24 Trillion can be collected as full and final income tax.  By ensuring all transactions above PKR5,000 through banking channel will increase amount bank transactions by at least 100%.  It can be safely estimated that through this procedure government will be able to collect more than PKR 6 trillion per year.  It will bring maximum number of people in the tax net and allow participation of tax payers towards national development. No further taxation will be required by the government, whatsoever.  It does not require any explanation as to what will be the effect of such taxation system, yet few benefits are outlined

1.       Negative inflation of 15-20% will be observed in first year of implementation, which would be an instant relief to each and every citizen of Pakistan.

2.       No one will escape tax net and country will have well documented economy.

3.       Equal percentage and proportionate contribution by maximum number of taxpayers will be ensured.

4.       Requirement for higher denomination currency notes will reduce, thus circulation of black money can be controlled by removing PKR5000 and PKR 1000 currency notes from market.

5.       Less cash with people will also help in reducing crime rate.

Why our financial and economic gurus do not come up with simple things rather then complex and intricate methods of squeezing those who have already been squeezed.

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[1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2004.html

[2] World Bank report entitled World Development Indicators (WDI) 2013

[3] http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/social_statistics/publications/hies07_08/table1.pdf

[4] www.statebank.org.pk

Ideological Conception, Detrimental Implementation and Vague Future

It has been more than 6 decades this country called Pakistan got its independence from colonial powers. Six decades is a long time, good enough to turn a new born state into a super power.  It is not matter of twisting words or assuming that length of period can be lucrative and fruitful enough as to make a nation superpower, but a fact in the shape of Peoples Republic of China. It is time long enough for a super power like Union of Social Soviet Republics to break, as well.  Unfortunately, Pakistan which was fifth strongest state in the mid 1900’s is standing in the column of those nations who were unable to bear the tremors and toils of time and fell victim to the conspiracies of disintegration.

Analysis of the prevailing situations during the past era, allows it to comfortably deduce that this disintegration was result of our own choices.  “Choice” is not picking up one thing out of multiple options; neither does it mean that it has to be deliberate.  Choice is the state of mind which persuades individuals, groups and nations to adopt a particular option.  “Choice” is the inside fiber of a group which ultimately forms a nation.  The strength of fiber determines the path this band will follow. 

Looking back at the history reveals that atrocities by the colonial regime on the Muslims of subcontinent in connivance with the influential Hindu community led to the formation of Muslim League.  The organization strived to acquire a separate homeland for the Muslims of subcontinent and achieved the objective owing to their sincerity and faithfulness.  But immediately on emergence of this nation these soldiers of nation were surrounded by opportunists, charlatans and hypocrites.  Though the country was desired for the Muslims of the region, but mandate of The Leader was clear that every citizen of this country to practice his or her own religion and allowed to visit the places of their worship without any restriction; may it be Hindus, Christians, Sikhs or Muslims.  Likewise, the dream of sincerest freedom movement leaders was to develop a great and strong Pakistan, second to none.  Though “Second to None” is a very small phrase nevertheless of this fact it engulfs a world in itself. It speaks of their vision with regards to economy, civic sense, welfare, defense, conduct, amenities, technology, sincerity, honesty, faithfulness, unity, discipline and the list is never ending.  It was not only a vision rather practical demonstration of these traits even when subcontinent was still undivided.  Liaquat Ali Khan’s Budget in pre-partition era is a glaring example of what he would have preferred in the independent country he was striving for.  A budget, which defines an economic system for the people and reflecting elements of Islamic Economic System.  A system, where a person, who derives more from the soil has to contribute largest share in the tax collection system.  A budget encouraging control of profit margins at lower levels, so that distribution of wealth and price hike remains under control.  Unfortunately, after the creation of this country ever greedy opportunist resorted to keeping all the wealth among themselves and the term of 22 families came into existence.

The country was forced to implement policies contrary to human values and basic ideology.  Influential people continued to grab the reigns of power and twisted the policies to safe guard their interest at the cost of national interest.  Today we stand at a dilemma which is not economically mendable.   Bank account of few individuals soaring with riches, basic cost of living touching the heights of inflation, amenities taking up face of calamities, rich becoming richer, poor becoming poorer, majority of the country’s population in misbalanced state of mind leading to crimes and suicides, religion being abused and molested for personal / political gains, country trembling under the load of foreign loans and rulers not ready to leave the luxuries of motorcades and red carpets. 

Natural demise of Quid-e-Azam, unnatural departure of Shaheed-e-Millat and usurping of power by conspirators and connivers”; turned the country towards path of confirming Churchill’s words uttered at the time of British Governments’ decision in 1946. “Power will go to the hands of rascals, rouges and free booters. Not a bottle of water or a loaf of bread will escape taxation.  Only the air will be free and the blood of these hungry millions will be on the head of Prime Minister Clement Attllee.

These are men of straw of whom no trace will be found after a few years.  They will fight among themselves and India will be lost in political squabbles.”

In the instable political environment military takeovers were bound to happen, especially when the political figures used influence of uniform to maintain in power.  Each military ruler ended up with high ambitions, but ingratiating natured people were able to mould the flow of action from sincerity towards eccentricity.  In the wake of blindness loyalty towards country turned into self praise and narcissistic approach. Dreams of were woven and all the forces were diverted to make these dreams come true.  The worst part is all these people who succeeded each other and became indispensable, never thought that the graveyards are full of indispensable people.  They forgot that these attempts were being made by Pharaohs, Romans, Mughals, Mangols, etc etc, but none of them survived the decisions of nature and had to surrender to the call from Emperor of the Universe.    

The never ending desire for power to satisfy the ulterior motives of individuals has left the country in the tiff of illiterate, short sighted, hoodlums, hooligans, extremist and goons.  

Security Policy

Security is one single factor effecting growth, reputation and prosperity of Pakistan. In general blame is shifted on political parties, Afghan Refugees, separatist, Talibans, etc.   There is no doubt that all these factors do contribute to growing lawlessness in the country; yet there are much simpler and easier methods to improve deteriorating law and order situation.

Crime is divided in two main categories namely Personal and Property, both these categories include all elements mentioned above, making it difficult to address the issue effectively. Another perspective of criminal activities with respect to common man depicts three main categories namely Terrorism, Ransom and Street Crime, excluding white collar crime committed by government functionaries and politicians. 

It is important to understand that security situation in Pakistan will never improve without taking remedial measures.  But, inter-relation of crimes with the category of people committing it is so intertwined that it seems difficult to identify the loose end.  As Napoleon said that there is no word like impossible.  A rational approach to the problem surely indicates a way out.  Analytical approach towards security issues in Pakistan reveals that it is organized street crime which is effecting common man.  Terrorism, Kidnapping and Extortion may have larger quantum, yet remains confined to lesser number of people as compared to majority of citizens.  Therefore, the foremost thing is to provide peace of mind to common man and first address the issue which is effecting larger segment of society.

Security of citizens cannot be addressed by treating the symptoms.  To ensure a safe environment for citizens and tourists it is essential to treat the root cause. Most of the crimes take place when environment is conducive. Hence, crime can be considerably reduced and controlled just by denying a favourable environment.

Question arises as to what is an encouraging environment for crimes against common man.  Two places - Very crowded public areas and secluded zones.  Most of the people are subjected to street crimes in most crowded places, especially roads during traffic jams, red light and road blockages.  Roads become idea playground for street criminals when there is commotion, chaos, jams, unwanted pedestrian movement at traffic lights, etc.  Root cause of these congestions is violation of traffic rules, unauthorized parking, walking vendors and beggars. 

Law exists to address all four factors, only implementation is missing; which can be done by local administration, provided they have a will to do that. Safe estimates indicate that 60-70% of street crime and at least 10-15% of heinous crimes can be controlled just by implementing traffic rules and regulations. 

What is stopping us to do that?

The Forgotten Past

The Forgotten Past

Forgetting past, or should it be called fading away of past memories, is a wonderful gift of nature to mankind. It reduces the sour taste of bad experiences in life. On the other hand, God being creator has also given the gift of remembering follies of the past to analyse and avoid any misadventures in future.

Somehow, Pakistani nation has lost its capabilities of remembering the follies and is repeatedly going through same mistakes again and again.  It appears that this nation is not in habit of going through the statistics of past;  conversely, statistics of past are not available at one place for people to compare.

After some toiling efforts basic statistical data has been gathered and compiled, for common man to assist them in selecting their future leaders or should it be said future rulers. The data has been used to create graphs with colour coding to provide visual representation.  It demarcates four governments from 1995-2012. Due to absence of accurate and authentic data from a centralised place, it has been compiled from different sources and validated.  Therefore, the data though being authentic may lack fine precision. From this point onwards the article is without words for individuals to draw their own conclusion.

*Disbursement by / Payments to IMF (to be read in conjunction with Forex Reserves)

Note: The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries' official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies.

Under its Articles of Agreement (Article XV, Section 1, and Article XVIII), the IMF may allocate SDRs to member countries in proportion to their IMF quotas. Such an allocation provides each member with a costless, unconditional international reserve asset on which interest is neither earned nor paid. However, if a member's SDR holdings rise above its allocation, it earns interest on the excess. Conversely, if it holds fewer SDRs than allocated, it pays interest on the shortfall. The Articles of Agreement also allow for cancellations of SDRs, but this provision has never been used. The IMF cannot allocate SDRs to itself or to other prescribed holders.

From Economic Dependence to Independence

Pakistan is a blessed country and is capable of converting its economic defeat into success.  This country has been sanctified with natural resources, which if used prudently and intelligently, can covert this country into a heaven on earth.  However, to achieve this objective certain areas need to be focused and efforts need to be diverted to obtain sustainable results.  Before the road map to success is drawn it is essential to analyse the extent of economic debt and potential to turn around the economy.

Pakistan has a large amount of internal and external debt. PKR4754 Billion as per State Bank statistics for external debt and increasing. Internal debt stands at PKR 4,893,301 million out of which PKR 1,456,184 million against saving schemes and 235,997 million against prize bonds. Each year Pakistan is paying 76,797 million as interest on foreign debt.

The country has an income of PKR 2107Billion and expense of PKR2559 Billion leaving the country with no option but to borrow PKR452 billion just in 2011-12 to meet the deficit. (Budget 2011-12)

In order to turn around this adverse economical spiral some bold steps are required with strict  implementation. This paper will discuss some factors contributing to economy and analyse how turn a around can take place.

Expenditures

First thing which Government of Pakistan has to do is to reduce it expenses by at least 20%.  Question is how it can be done.  20% of expenses mean to reduce an amount of PKR462.9718 billion.  If this magic figure is achieved then an immediate stop to any further borrowing by the government from local banks will take place. It seems to be a very big amount but putting the pieces of puzzle in right places can provide a very viable solution.

Proposed Reduction	Saved Amount (PKR Billions)	Balance (PKR Billions)	Remarks
Targeted Reduction		462.9718	Present bank borrowing stands at PKR452 billion
100% Benazir Income Support Program	50	412.9718	This element is only adding 50 billion a year to internal debt and devaluing existing currency. It is inculcating a culture of begging among masses. Moreover, PKR1000 cannot do much for people in this shattering economy.
10% reduction in executive and legislative organ	130.89	282.0818	These expenses are related to President, PM, MNAs and their associated perks therefore a 10% reduction should be done to set precedence of austerity drive.
20% reduction in broadcasting and publishing	0.66	281.4218	This amount can be saved by stopping unnecessary full page colour ads for self publicity at the cost of public money.
100% Grant to Railway	255	26.4218	Railway is fully capable of generating its own revenues; rather it has potential to generate revenues for the government. It needs professional management and improved controls. Railway Ministers and Bureaucrats will only add to its misery.
50% Grant for contingent liabilities	75	-48.5782	These expenses are just loop holes to siphon money.
50% Misc Grants	15	-63.5782	Again a loop hole to siphon money
100% PIAC Equity	3.8	-67.3782	PIA can very well look after itself by rationalizing its expenses.  Best airlines of the world are operating with an aircraft to staff ratio of 1:40 to 45. PIA is the only airline having more than 350 staff per aircraft.  In such scenario how can the airline go into profits.  The airline has to be managed more professionally. Government obligation to subsidize non profit sectors can be done through profits earned.
10% PSDP Expenses	1.56	-68.8782	This is just an eye wash of rewarding blue eyed bureaucrats.
50% Lump sum grant mentioned under Table-33	7	-75.8782	Again a loop hole to siphon money
100% NHA	39.9	-115.7782	NHA is generating sufficient revenues through toll. Therefore, they should meet their own expenses. It should collect revenues from those who use National Highways and all the citizens should not be taxed. Any amount for construction of new roads be given as recoverable loan.
50% from FATA /GB Wheat Purchase	0.5	-116.2782	The amount allocated is for almost 1 million tons of wheat. Is this wheat being distributed free of cost? If not then it should not be shown as an expense instead it should come in as a loan returnable on recovery.
100% Import of Sugar	1	-117.2782	Private sector should be allowed to import sugar this will help keep the sugar prices low with no cost.
10% Economic Affair	5	-122.2782	It can afford to reduce in cost by 10% under the umbrella of austerity drive.
1% Defence Budget	4.93	-127.2082	Defence can very comfortably reduce its budget 1%.  This can be done by putting a ban on money spent to renovate houses of star officer’s each year. The amounts as so high as if the people living in those houses took everything with them or used it like class 4. Furthermore, there is potential of controlling the expense through negotiations and reduced kickbacks.

The above analysis shows that budgetary deficit of PKR452 billion can be easily converted to surplus budget of  PKR 127.2082 billion, without disturbing repayments on loans, education, health, environment, etc. This amount can be utilized to waive petroleum levy of PKR120 billion all together.  This will reduce burden on common man and will also support economic activities; leaving a surplus of PKR7.2 billion to support activities like tourism, health, horticulture, public, social security etc.

Next step is to increase this surplus by generating more revenues. Pakistan should target at increasing its revenues by 20%.  Again the question is how this amount of PKR 305.7658 billion can be raised.

Pakistan is an agricultural country and agricultural sectors contribute 23% of its GDP.  This share of GDP is derived through 25% of land available. First thing which needs to be done is to bring agriculturist in tax net. This in no ways implies that an agriculture tax should be imposed.  Imposing an agriculture tax would amount to burdening the masses and letting the agriculturist scot free.  An agriculturist farming mangoes and vegetables on an area of 10 hectares earns approximately 5-6 million a year. His total expense, including losses due to theft, aabiana, electricity, etc is approximately 1-1.5 million a year. This leaves him with a tax free profit of almost 4 million a year. Even if he is taxed at same rate as salaried person, an owner of 10 hectares should pay a minimum PKR600,000 as tax every year. Let’s take only 50% of this amount as target income tax collection.  In 2010-11, 23.67 million hectares were sown, thus a potential of PKR 710.1 billion exists and is untapped.

Pakistan is an agricultural country and should concentrate on increasing its yield, through innovative methods.  Therefore, those who own agriculture land and do not indulge in farming should be subjected to non utilization tax.  In 2010-11 total of 32million hectares were unutilized for agriculture.  Considering 50% of such land to be unutilized due to floods, therefore 16 million hectares should be taxed at the rate of PKR10,000 per hectare; thus generating revenue of PKR160billion.

There are more than 195 countries in the world; Pakistan stands among top 20 countries in some of the produces.  According to FAO 2009 Statistics Pakistan ranking as per quantity produced.[1]

Pakistan Top Production 2009

Rank	Commodity	Production (Int $1000)	Production (MT)
1	Buffalo milk, whole, fresh	8193169	21622000
2	Cow milk, whole, fresh	3553048	11985000
3	Wheat	3507547	24033000
4	Cotton lint	3087080	2160000
5	Rice, paddy	2799901	10324500
6	Indigenous Buffalo Meat	1986501
7	Indigenous Cattle Meat	1906560	705774
8	Sugar cane	1479006	50045400
9	Mangoes, mangosteens, guavas	1035360	1728000
10	Cottonseed	978187	4138200
11	Indigenous Chicken Meat	925487	649735
12	Indigenous Goat Meat	639523	266903
13	Potatoes	473059	2941300
14	Hen eggs, in shell	438851	529126
15	Indigenous Sheep Meat	418001	153519
16	Dates	375508	735276
17	Onions, dry	357917	1704100
18	Maize	350890	3261500
19	Oranges	288418	1492400
20	Goat milk, whole, fresh	241282	719000
	Total	33,035,295	139,932,733

Surveys have proved that up to 25% of grain produced in Pakistan is wasted due to poor storage conditions, improper transportation, birds consumption and insect damage. This wastage can be reduced  by employing modern storage and transportation techniques at farms, warehouses and ports.  A 10% saving on wheat grains can generate US$350 millions for Pakistan and help reduce trade deficit. Likewise, 30% of the milk produced in Pakistan is wasted due to poor handling.  This saving can generate US$437million for the country. 

Western world prefers meat with fat; to cater for their demand countries like Australia are maintaining farm fed animals. Whereas, people from Middle East prefer lean meat and would certainly prefer to buy meat with sufficient nutritious value yet without extra fat. Supporting concept of free grazing- lean meat farming can develop product for Middle Eastern region. Any revenue earned through development of this sector will add millions into reducing trade deficit.  What we need to do is develop goodwill and credibility in international market by developing workable strategies.  Pakistan’s foreign missions should be tasked objectively to achieve these goals rather than setting up their own businesses abroad.

Dates grow in tropical desert area and Pakistan has abundance of such area.  Presently only 75,000 hectares are being utilized for date cultivation.  Potential to develop date farming in Balochistan and Sindh exists, which can safely reduce trade deficit by another US$100-150 million per annum.

Our strenuous efforts have ensured that Pakistan is used as synonym for all the wrongs, which certainly does not commensurate with the literal meaning of Pakistan. Our business community is making all efforts to ensure that this image is further tarnished through their unethical practices in trade. In 2011 almost 1.5 million tons of wheat was exported from Pakistan.  Despite the fact that this was premium quality wheat, yet Pakistan was unable to obtain premium price.      Credit of this misfortune goes to our business community, which was more interested in their personal extra dollar against country’s image.   This perspective and image needs to be changed. This change cannot take place without toiling efforts.  World has to be made aware of Pakistan’s effort in improving quality of export related products and quality has to be assured for getting premium price for exported products.  This can be made possible only by educating all stake holders with strict supervisions while regulations are implemented.

Government should invest in building of silos for grain storage and encourage private investors to install such silos.  Ports need to be equipped with modern evacuators for loading and unloading of grain. These modern storages and handling facilities will contain wastage of grains, decrease trade deficit and also earn money for silo investors.

A similar situation prevails in fisheries sector as well.  Due to our negligence Pakistan’s fisheries products are not acceptable in premium markets of European Union.  We have a total coastline of 1,090 km and a total fishing area of approximately 300,000 sq. kms. Pakistan’s fishing waters are termed as highly rich in marine life with a vast variety of species having commercial value. However, this potential is not reflected in the export earnings from fisheries sector. The exports of “Fish and Fish Preparation” were at $134.5 million (with a volume of 93,214 tons) in 2002-03. (Source: EPB)

This situation was mainly attributed to unorganized nature of private sector, lack of focus in Government policies and little institutional investment (in public and private sector projects) in this sector.

Pakistan’s exports of fishery products stand at about 0.25% of world exports. A rough estimate based on maximum sustainable yield figures, existing value addition, and foreign benchmarks, puts our total export potential from this sector at around US$ 1.0 billion from existing natural resources. If we include the high potential area of aquaculture, our fisheries sector can yield even higher export earnings[2].

Regularisation of Weapons

Weapons are part of every culture may it be western or eastern.  Our religion also patronizes holding and maintaining weapons for self defence and as a deterrent to the enemy.  It is the right of every individual to maintain a respectable defence mechanism.  Deweaponisation of common man on the pretext of increase in criminal activities is invalid; because crime is not committed with legal weapons.  Only precaution needed is - verification of licensees’ character, residence and reputation, which will dictate issuance of weapon license. 

FATA has traditionally been making small arms since long. They have mastered this skill and are earning bread and butter through this profession.  Closing down a source of income for these people will nurture criminal activities.  Need of the hour is to patronize this arms industry and regularize it.  Thus another source of income for the government will be created, increase export revenues will take place and product quality will improve with experience. It will also create trail of weapons to control crime .  In this time of advanced traceability, it is very easy to trace each and every chicken lying in grocery store and toy displayed in stores.  Therefore, creating traceability of weapons can also be done with ease and transparence.  Though, monetary estimates are not available for this industry, but it will be safe to say that this industry will be able to generate revenues in millions of dollar.

Development of Mineral Resources

According to a report published in 2006 by government of Pakistan total global trade of precious and semi-precious stones, other than diamond, stands at US$1.8 billion.  Pakistan’s share in this trade is less than US$50 million.  Despite the fact that Pakistan has 5^th or 6^th largest reserves of precious and semi-precious stones like ruby, topaz, sapphire, aquamarine, emerald, tourmaline, etc. Pakistan’s revenue are negligible in comparison to other gem exporting countries. Revenues from gemstones can increase by 30-100 folds just by adopting modern lapidary techniques. An investment of PKR187 million, in latest lapidary equipment, can open doors of opportunity for this nation in the form of higher export revenues, jobs generation and stronger PKR[3].  By employing modern technologies Pakistan’s income can reach US$1.5-2 billion. Jobs created will contribute to income tax collection.  Considering 2% of income tax generated revenue amount projects PKR2.5-3.5 Billion for the country in terms of direct tax.

Thar has a coal deposit 175 billion tons, though it is not of very good quality, yet it does have calorific value of 3,000-10,000BTU/ lb (on dry basis)[4]. Converting 25% of these deposits to energy, considering calorific value to be 5000 btu/lb, can produce approximately 82 quadrillion BTU. Energy value of this coal reserve is considered to be more than energy value of oil possessed by Iran and Iraq combined[5]. By a safe estimate Iran and Iraq combined have 251 billion barrels of crude, which is equal to approximately 38 billion MT. Crude has BTU value of 19000 PMT[6] which gives total calorific value of 722 trillion BTU.  It can be safely estimated that for next few decades Pakistan would neither be required to pump its own oil nor it will require imported oil to support its economic activity.  It will also help reduce electricity charges to support businesses and migrating industry[7].

Recko Diq has been talk of the town in recent past.  estimated at 5.9 billion tonnes with an average copper grade of 0.41% and an average gold grade of 0.22 g/tonne[8], there are other 14 porphyries having an estimated total deposit of 500million tons of copper. A safe estimate indicated presence of 12.98 milion tons of gold and 2.4 Billion MT of copper in Recko Diq. From this reserve approximately 100,000 ounces of gold can be extracted each year. Pakistan should look into the aspect of mining this gold itself.  Professionals should be hired to run the operation and funds should be generated by floating shares to only people of Pakistan.  Gold explored should be bought at controlled rate (say 10% less than market rate) by government of Pakistan. To convert this asset into immediate benefit, Pakistan should shift its focus from multicurrency based exchange rate to gold based.  Thus, value of PKR will improve in international market. In just five years Pakistan will be able to strengthen its currency and bring it at par with strongest international currency, hence bringing prosperity to common man. This exploration business will provide dividends to the shareholders and strengthen PKR in international market; while creating employment for local resources, thus reducing influx of people in metropolises for employment opportunities.

Improve Tourism

Tourism is a leisure activity, yet helps countries in generating revenue directly and indirectly. Direct revenues are in terms of cash spent by tourist in the country and indirect revenue is in shape of trade and image building.  Pakistan is one of few countries which have broad range of terrain and weather. Most important factor to support tourism activities is the sense of security to visitors. Tourist are mostly those who are not looking at luxurious lifestyles during their vacations, but are more interested in being close to nature, people and be in markets to explore local products. So the first thing government needs to invest into is the security, rest all investment will automatically flow in from private sector; contributing directly to the economy of Pakistan. Very few countries have this advantage of offering tourist activities throughout the year. If Pakistan can develop its tourism to attract just 100 tourists a day and estimating each tourist spending US$1000 during his or her stay in Pakistan, an amount of US$30-35 million can flow into Pakistan’s economy from other economies of the world.  Indirect effect of this money inflow will be in the shape of increased tax collection, considering only 2% adding to the tax collection, will generate approximately PKR 51 million. Further it will also develop local tourism and continuous support jobs generated.

Summary of Potential Revenue Generation Streams

Proposed Reduction	PKR in Billions	PKR in Billions	Remarks
Desired increase of 205 in revenue		305.7658
Bring Agriculturist into normal tax net (Does not mean Agriculture Tax)	710	1015.2342
Nonutilization tax of Agricultural Land	160	1175.2342
Tax income from Precious and Semi-precious stones	2.5	1177.7342
Tourism contribution in terms of tax	0.051	1177.7852	Surplus equal to almost 50% of Pakistan’s annual budget. This amount can be utilized to improve security, development, education and health.

Development of Nationalism

Nationalism is not an inbuilt factor; rather it is cultured in individuals. To inculcate nationalism, it is essential that patriotism is developed through resonance of national anthem, nationalistic thoughts, national songs, recognition of national heroes, etc. This is how soldiers are convinced to give their life for motherland. Is it only the duty of armed forces to give their sweat and blood for the country and nation?  Citizens do not owe any thing to this country and nation?  If a person is living in this country, earning bread and butter from here and using the resources of this country; it becomes mandatory for him or her to contribute something towards solidarity and protection of this country.  Only way which will lead them to discharge their national obligation is by developing nationalism.

Unbridled media has been able to change cultural and moral values of this country through slow brain washing.  People seldom hear national anthem on television or radio.  Actors, singers and fashion models have become national heroes instead of Hasan Sardar, MM Alam and Rashid Minhas. Entertainment anchors are projecting their families on media and involving viewers in nonproductive, nonsense and nonintellectual discussions. These channels do change the colour of their logo to match national flag on Independence Day, but continue to air contents comprising of Indian item songs, Bollywood movies and implied anti state material. Irrespective, who is national idol in this 20^th century, it is important to project national culture rather than foreign cultures. These individuals can play vital role in building moral values for Pakistan and can be catalyst in changing destiny of this crowd into that of a nation.

Media is a very powerful instrument; it can change thought process of a nation. A code of ethics, with well define national morale boosting objectives can prove to be a wonder drug.  It should be mandatory for these channels to air patriotic and nationalist contents like it is done in Thailand; where it is mandatory for all television and radio stations to play national anthem twice a day at pre-defined time. It is mandatory for media to air nationalistic programs and indoctrinate a culture of nationalism among the masses. 

Reduction in Imports

Pakistan’s trade deficit is increasing day in and day out.  It stands at $10.265 billion as of August 2011[9]. One of the factors for this trade misbalance is import of petroleum and related products.  Fuel is life for all business activities; therefore, Pakistan will have to live with this expense. Pakistan’s fuel import bill may touch a figure of US$13 billion[10]. But, based on the facts mentioned above do we really need this fuel? However, dependence of imported fuel in shape of crude or product can be reduced by taking diabolic measures. One of the major consumption of fuel is by power sector.  Pakistan needs to invest in renewable energy resources.  Apparently many steps have been taken to incorporate renewable energy, but unfortunately all those measures have become victim of bureaucratic approach, investors’ lust for more profits and vested interests of power corridors. Another use of fuel is transportation; this particular requirement can be reduced by developing respectable mass transit systems like already being run in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Europe and America. A secure, respectable and affordable mass transit system can not only reduce dependence on petroleum products, but will also reduce traffic load on roads, thus making it more manageable.  A fair estimate indicates reduction of 40% traffic load on roads by introduction of mass transit systems. But security and safety remains pre-requisite for such system.

Leaving aside political rhetoric and adhering to admittance of fact, India has become an economic power.  It will not be wrong to give its credit to Indira Gandhi, who disallowed imported goods for almost a decade.  She advocated local production of goods; though generation of that time missed luxuries which could have been imported. But today’s generation of India is reaping the fruits of her decision in the form of luxury products produced within the country and available to consumers on reasonable prices. It is said that better be late than never; Pakistan should disallow import of luxury goods and advocate local production. In this modern time Pakistan will require less than 5 years to be self-sufficient.  The pain and discomfort of those who are used to such luxuries is understandable, but its long term benefit does qualify for such decision to be taken in national interest.

Political Change

Any effort to turn around economic situation will not bear fruit unless political will is present.  Problem with present political setup in Pakistan does not have representation of true majority.  Main reason for this anomaly is non-implementation of election rules and lack of transparency in electoral process.  To ensure that right people are in respective assemblies, certain difficult decisions and strict implementation of Constitutional provisions are needed. This of course is not an easy task as those who can amend the constitution at this point in time do not want to change present set up, as it suits their re-election into legislature circles.  Nonetheless, to satisfy the objective of this paper it will be highly unfair if solution to the core issue of Pakistan is not addressed.

Pakistan has been brought to the brink of disaster by those who have no stake within the country.  They come here to rule, make money, enjoy the privileges of the post and leave to relish the memories, money plundered and businesses developed.  It is now become inevitable to stop such people from reaching national and provincial assemblies.  To deny such opportunities to these opportunists, it is essential that all those who hold dual nationality, have bank accounts in foreign countries and having their businesses outside Pakistan, be disqualified from contesting any sort of elections in Pakistan. All those desirous of contesting election should be asked to surrender their foreign nationality, bring their riches in the country and adopt permanent residence within Pakistan. 

Electoral candidates should only be allowed to contest the elections if they are Pakistani national by birth, living within Pakistan for at least 10 years, have been living for at least five years in the same constituency from where nomination for candidature are filed and have the right to vote. These individuals will be influencing policy making therefore, they should have a minimum qualification of graduate.

Present procedure for electing college of legislators in Pakistan is susceptible to blunders and unfair practices in elevating people to House of Representatives.  Elections for national and provincial assemblies are conducted on one day and political parties can manipulate results to suit their objectives. Another drawback in such type of elections is complete turnover of legislators; thus consist national policy cannot be maintained.  A procedure similar to Senate can bring consistency in government policy. Present electoral system brings into power political amateurs, who do not have acumen, vision and capacity to be a leader, a politician and/or a statesman. Political parties install puppets to serve their objectives rather than national interests.

To address this anomaly complete system of provincial and national assemblies needs to be revamped and redesigned. Provincial assemblies can serve as political training institutions. Proposed model of electoral system can result in training of statesmen rather than politicians.

Proposed Electoral System

The system of elections needs to be changed from Parliamentary to Presidential form of government. Elections for the President of Pakistan should be through public balloting.  President then will have the right to choose six or seven ministers from senate or national assembly, to run the affairs of government. Likewise, Governors should be elected through public vote from each province and allowed to select 8-10 ministers from existing provincial assemblies to run the affairs of government.  President and Governors should be entitled to have maximum two terms of four years each. Presidential and Governorship election should be independent and staggered.

1. Number of seats in each province should be based on population of that province.
2. Total number of seats in each provincial assembly should be divided into four segments. Each segment is subjected to election every four years. Thus at any one point in time 3/4^th of provincial assembly will be experienced and familiar with current policies; thus it will be able to maintain consistency and act as trainers for new entrants in the field of politics.
3. Candidate for a provincial assembly should have lived in the geographical boundaries of constituency of candidacy for at least three years immediately preceding the election and should continue to live in the same geographical perimeter, till completion of term with the House. He should be residing in the province of candidacy for five years immediately preceding the elections and residing in Pakistan for 10 years immediately preceding the elections.
4. Any one person can serve in the provincial assembly for maximum 2 terms.
5. Election of MPA should be through vote of people of relevant constituency.
6. Only those candidates who have served in Provincial Assembly for 2 years should be eligible to file candidature for National Assembly.
7. Voting for National Assembly candidate should be by members of relevant provincial assembly.
8. Size of National Assembly should be less than and dependent upon size of provincial assemblies, based on population ratio.
9. Similar to Provincial Assembly, National Assembly seats should rotated every four years.  Thus consistency on national policies can be achieved.
10. Likewise, members of National Assemblies should be entitled for only two terms of four years each.
11. Members for Senate should be elected through vote of National and Provincial Assemblies combined.
12. Candidate for the position of Senate should have served in National Assembly for a period of two years.
13. A Senator may be entitled for maximum two terms of four years in the senate.
14.  Maximum age for being member of National Assembly, Provincial Assemblies, Senate, Presidency and Governorship should be limited to 65 years subject to medical fitness.

Conclusion

Factors discussed in this paper are just a few, there is room for improvement in all the fields. Sincere efforts, right supervision and strict implementation of law can change destiny of this country.  Only then the name Pakistan will suit this geographical outline and there will be substance in: Pakistan Paindabad

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[1] http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx

[2] http://www.pakissan.com/english/agri.overview/fisheries.sector.in.pakistan.shtml

[3]  http://www.pc.gov.pk/usefull%20links/Studies%20for%20P&DD/Mineral-Based%20Industries/Gemstones,%20Production,%20%20Processing%20and%20Marketing.pdf

[4] http://www.ppib.gov.pk/COAL%20BOOK.pdf

[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

[6] http://www.eppo.go.th/ref/UNIT-OIL.html

[7] Value based on current import values per month approximated to 2010 import values based on 50% increase in estimated demand.

[8] http://www.antofagasta.co.uk/interior/operations/explora.php

[9] http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/11/trade-gap-narrows-by-923pc-in-feb.html

[10] http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/02-Mar-2011/Oil-import-bill-may-reach-13b