Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Global Recession - Some Loud Thoughts

Global market, at present is depicting a continuous fall in the prices of crude oil as well as other commodities. This reduction has been reported in various articles and columns, which however may not ring any bell, if viewed in isolation. In order to assimilate a composite situation, it is important to have a macro level glance at the events going on round the world. A SitREP, thus generated will surely raise the alarm in many minds.
Crude Oil
With the start of 21st century, crude prices continuously steeped in seven years and then dropped significantly around 2008. It was the time commonly termed as great recession, longest after the great depression.  However, recovery was observed in subsequent years with fairly steady prices. In 2014, crude oil again assumed a downwards journey which seems to be non-stop, owing to removal of sanctions on Iran.  The prices are predicted to go down further as low as touching the level of US$25 per barrel. The rumours seem to be true when crude prices are already touching US$28 per barrel. Further reduction may not be very far, as Iran intends to boost its oil export to 500 K barrel per day in six months and likely to touch 800K by the end of 2016. Iran intends to increase output to 5.7 million barrel a day by the end of 2020, a number almost twice current production.  Iran’s determination to realize this ambition can result in a nightmare, come true.


Agricultural Commodities
Situation is not very different with regards to wheat and other agricultural commodities like rice, palm oil, sugar, etc. Varying trends in wheat prices, during a given period remarkably share the same trail as of crude oil.  So is the similar pattern of other commodities. This downward drift is likely to smash hard on economy of the agriculture based countries
Wheat

 Palm Oil
Rice
Sugar 
Food
 Gold


It is not difficult to correlate the trends depicted in these graphs. All commodities prices escalate around 2007 followed by a drop which is the time of Great Recession; the longest recession after Great Depression of 1929-33. Much was assumed and talked about the decline turning into a depression, but luckily that was limited within two years and economy started recovering.  After an encouraging drive of more than four years, global economy stumbled again in 2014.  Today most of the indices linger around numbers same as 2005.
One major difference between Great Recession and current drop is the sharpness of the curve. In Great Recession, the decline was sharp, however, in current situation the process is gradual yet steady.  This drift forces one to contemplate, if the global economy is going into a depression or it is auto correcting itself, meaning thereby that it is going back to its original or actual worth.  It is interesting to note that gold showed speedy growth against other commodities post great recession, however, is constantly losing its value since 2013. Can it be termed as a fore warning for impending serious economic setback, much sever in intensity as compared to past? 
During the current scenario with sanctions being lifted from Iran and Saudi facing deficit for the first time in history, a persistent trend of decline in crude prices is indicated, which is likely to continue and prices are rightly perceived to remain low for a very long time.  Crude oil below US$20, once thought to be a dream, seems becoming true.  If crude goes down to pre-2000 what will be the fate of other commodities.  It would not be wrong to say that those will also start a downhill journey.
Consequently, reduction in revenues and margins can be forecasted. If so, how will the corporate sector sustain production costs, as low raw material cost alone may not be able to provide sufficient margins?   This may lead to a lack of disposable income available with rising joblessness. Retail market will also be affected and the general public with a set pattern of income, will be taken by surprise when major job cuts starts thrashing the market, which has already gone beyond 250,000 mark in 2015 for USA Oil & Gas Sector only.  Situation may  not be very different in other countries  having major role in global business. Similarly, what will happen to the other industries is quite understandable.
The impact of recession on geo-political situation has never been constructive.  Most of the time it has resulted in wars; may it be global, limited or civil. This is one way to restart the wheel of economy; destroy all and re-build.  Is this the solution? Or is this time to consolidate and sustain assets including human, while building on past years savings.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

16th December a Day Forgotten



16th  December is a significant day in the history of Pakistan. On this date in the year of 1971, Pakistan was dismembered.  In 44 years the incident is altogether forgotten under the propaganda of enemy media and intelligence. Many would tend to disagree and blame it on the armed forces for what happened in 1971 resulting in emergence of Bangladesh; under the influence of distortion of facts by the enemy.  Sharmila Bose, a Bengali writer, says “ I heard on media that Pakistani forces massacred male and molested females, students in Dhaka University hostel.  When I investigated the matter and met administrator of girls’ hostel, I was told that hostel was closed during that time and only seven students were in the hostel.  I interviewed those seven female students and was unable to find any evidence of rape. However, I did come across evidence of male students being killed, who were supporting Mukti Bahini; they were in possession of a large arsenal.  These students were involved in training of regular students on fire arms.”  Field Marshal Sam Manik Shaw, Indian Army Chief, states “ In 1971 we made full use of propaganda warfare to our benefit, it involved dissemination of stories stating Pak Army atrocities, through Mukti Bahini, meida and our well-wishers in Pakistan.  It is a fact that hundreds of thousands of Bengalis were killed by Mukti Bahini and blame was apportioned to Pakistani forces.” And words to that effect

Fall of Dhaka was possible only because of people within Pakistan, People like those who have later been rewarded by Bangladesh government. Pakistanis are ignorant to the extent that they keep these individuals in high esteem, by regarding them national figures and naming roads and underpasses after them.
16th December 2014 was selected as a day to attack Army Public School does not seem to be a coincidence it was a reminder to this nation that you have forgotten 16th December under the influence of Starplus and cricket matches, let us remind you that we can never be your friends.  We will keep reminding you of the humiliation whenever and in any manner we can, may it be by killing 144 innocent children.

On the occasion of APS first anniversary ISPR has released a new song, which declares avenging the incident by teaching the children of enemy.  It is time to think who are the children of enemy; its each one of us, who is bent upon embracing enemy culture, every individual who is begging enemy for cricket match despite her arrogant behaviour.  It’s our media which feels itself incomplete without enemy content and it’s our people who die to like the Facebook page of enemy filmstars.  It is our own politicians who have their business interest within the geographical boundaries of enemy and it is our so called leaders who beg RAW to help them achieve their political objectives. 


It is our duty and responsibility to identify these children of enemy among and within us.  Pakistan Paindabad. 

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Should Income Support Program Continue?

PPP government started a scheme with the name of Benazir Income Support Program.  Under this program PKR1000 is to be doled out to people having family income below PKR6000. 
BISP was initiated in October 2008 with an initial allocation of Rs.34 billion (US $ 425 million approximately) for the financial year 2008-09. The Programme aimed at covering 3.5 million families in the financial year 2008-2009. 
Taking 3.5 families as beneficiary and an amount of PKR1000 per family; total amount comes out to be 28 billion. This indicates that an amount 6 billion has been spent elsewhere taking the overheads to be 21.5%. By not initiating this program government would not have borrowed 34 billion, almost 21.8% less to meet its budget deficit.
Allocation for the financial year 2012-13 is Rs. 70 billion to provide cash assistance to 5.5 million families, which constitutes almost 18% of the entire population. The Programme aims at covering almost 40% of the population below the poverty line, that is 72 million people. Considering four people to a household gives a target of 18 million. At current rate amount required to provide this subsistence will be PKR259 trillion per annum 
It is imperative to analyse whether PKR1000 has benefited any of those who earned below PKR6000 (US$86).  Over these five years buying power of people has reduced with an average rate of 10% per annum.  So the first year a family earning PKR6000 had PKR7000, but their buying power was reduced to PKR6300. This means their original buying power went down to PKR5400. Today the same family holds original buying power of around PKR4150 (US$38.6), inclusive of BISP. 
A macro analysis confirms failure of this program in reducing poverty.  It has resulted in an increase in unwanted state expenses.  Had this money not been disbursed, devaluation of Pak Rupee would have been far less and so are the interests paid by government on loans. There would not have been requirement of printing more then required currency notes for circulation, thus would have helped keeping buying power more stable for common man.

This government, instead of shutting down this evil economic program has further increased the amount of dole, to gain political objectives. Objective is make people beggars and treat them as their political slaves.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Carvers of Pakistan’s Current Situation

 
Pakistan was one of the most enterprising countries in the world. It was reckoned as land of doctors and engineers in the western world.  It played pivotal role in establishing starring commercial ventures for the countries like UAE & Singapore. It was also instrumental in development of desert lands into what is known to be one of the leading urban areas. It has abundance of natural resources worth billions of Dollars and human resource, which is jubilantly celebrated as intelligent young software engineers, high achieving ACCAs, , sportsmen, engineers, doctors and soldiers. It holds one of the largest youth human resource, when most of the countries in the world are short of effective manpower for future.
Natural and Human resources are key to accelerated development of a country. Yet this country still stands in the line of developing/ under developed countries, after 66 years of sovereignty. Time and again, this issue has been touched upon halfheartedly and abandoned; most of the times blame is apportioned to dictators and politicians. Though incompetence of governing faction cannot be overruled; but, those who are the real culprits to bring down Pakistan to the brink of destruction are always allowed to go scot free.   
In true sense it is the bureaucracy of this country who with the connivance of their subordinates has de-shaped and damaged this country.  Had state machinery been functioning as per the vision of Quid-e-Azam, despite all the traitors, Pakistan would have joined the ranks of most developed nations in the world.
Quid-e-Azam’s expectation from civil servants was spell out by him at  Peshawar in April 1948:
  The reason why I am meeting you is that I wanted to say a few words to you who are occupying very important positions in the administration of this province. The first thing that I want to tell you is that you should never be influenced by any political pressure, by any political party or any individual politician. If you want to raise the prestige and greatness of Pakistan you must not fall victim to any pressure but do your duty as servants of the people and the state, fearlessly and honestly.

The services are the backbone of the state. Governments are formed. Governments are defeated. Prime Ministers come and go, ministers come and go, but you stay on. Therefore, there is a very great responsibility placed on your shoulders. You should have no hand in supporting this political party or that political party, this political leader or that political leader. This is not your business.

Whichever government is formed according to the constitution, and who ever happens to be the prime minister or minister, coming into power in the ordinary course, your duty is only to serve that government loyally and morally but, at the same time, fearlessly, maintaining your high reputation, your prestige, your honour and the integrity of your service. If you start with that determination, you will make a great contribution to the building up of Pakistan of our conceptions and our dream-a glorious state and one of the greatest nations in the world. 

While impressing this upon you, I wish also to take the opportunity of impressing upon our leaders and politicians in the same way, that if they ever try to interfere with you and bring political pressure to bear upon you, which leads to nothing but corruption, bribery and nepotism-which is a horrible disease and for which not only your province but others too are suffering-if they try to interfere with you in this way, I say they are doing nothing but disservice to Pakistan.

I hope that each of you will understand his own sphere of duty and responsibility and act with others harmoniously in complete cooperation, keeping in mind that each has to do his duty within the sphere to which he belongs, if on your part start with that determination and enthusiasm – and I hope the other side will also realize what a terrible evil they are raising up and how it demoralizes the services to try and influence this department or that departments, this office or that officer-and if you stick to your determination you will have done a great service to your nation. Putting pressure on service people is, I know, a very common fault of politicians and those with influence in political parties, but I hope you will now, from today, resolve and determine to act according to the humble advice I am giving you.

May be some of you may fall victim for not satisfying the whims of ministers. I hope it does not happen, but you may even be put to trouble not because you are doing anything wrong but because you are doing right.
Sacrifices have to be made, and I appeal to you, to come forward if need be to make the sacrifice and face the position of being put on the black list or being otherwise worried or troubled. If some of you will give me the opportunity of your sacrifice, believe me we will find a remedy for that very soon. I tell you that you will not remain on the black list if you discharge your duties honestly, sincerely and loyally to the state. It is you who can give us the opportunity to create a powerful machinery which will give you complete sense of security. 
To comprehend and understand his vision of a civil servant’s character, it is necessary to go through an extract from Shahabnama by Qurdratullah Shahab, an ICS officer.

۔اس بار جو میں نے چیف منسٹر کے کاغذات کا جاٗزہ لیا تو ان میں ایک عجیب دستاویز ہاتھ اّیٗ ۔ یہ چھ صفحات کا ساٗکلوسٹاٗلڈ انتہایٗ خفیہ  حکم نامہ تھا۔ جو کانگرسی چیف منسٹروں کے نام اس ہدایت کے ساتھ جاری کیا گیا تھا کہ ہر چیف منسٹر اسے اپنی ذاتی تحویل میں رکھے۔ اس میں لکھا تھا کہ تقسیم ہند کا معاملہ تقریباّ تے پا چکا ہے۔ اس لیے جن صوبوں میں کانگرس کی وذارتیں قاٗہٗم ہیں وہاں پر مسلمان افسروں کو کلیدی عہدوں سے تبدیل کر دیا جا ےٗ ۔ خاص طور پر ہوم ڈپارٹمنٹ، فنانس ڈپارٹمنٹ اور پریس ڈپارٹمنٹ  میں با اعتماد ہندو افسروں کو تعینات کیا جاےٗ ۔ ڈی سی، آیٗ جی اور ایس پی عموماّ ہندو ہوں۔  تھانوں کے انچارج بھی زیادہ سے زیادہ ہندو ہوں۔ مھکمہ پولیس می اور ضلعی انتظامیہ میں مسلمانوں کو فیلڈ ورک سے ہٹا کر بے ضرر قسم کے دفتری کام کاج پر لگا دیا جاےٗ ۔ پولیس کی نفرے میں مسلمان سپاہیوں کو بتدریج غیر مسلح کر کے پولیس لاہٗن اور تھانوں کے اندر معمولی فراہٗض پر مامور کیا جاےٗ ۔ جن صوبوں میں سرحدی مسلمانوں سے بھرتی شدہ ماوٗنٹڈ ملٹری پولیس ہے، اسے فوراّ توڑ دیا جاےٗ۔ اور افسروں اور نفری کو اختتام ملازمت کی مناسب رقم یکمشت ادا کرکے رخصت کر دیا جاےٗ۔ سرکاری خزانوں، اسلحہ خانوں اور محکمہ مال کے ریکارڈ آفسوں کی حفاظت کےلیےٗ ہندو گارڈ تعینات کےٗ جاہٗیں۔ اسلحہ رکھنے والے مسلمان لاہٗسنس ہولڈرز کی نقل و حرکت کی نگرانی کی جاےٗ۔ ایسے ہنگا می منصونے تیار رکھے جاہٗیں جن کے تحت ان لہٗسنسداروں سے قلیل ترین نوٹس پر ھر قسم کا اسلحہ قریبی تھانے میں جمع کرایا جاسکے۔ کاروں، بسوں، ٹیکسیوں اور ٹرکوں کے مسلمان مالکوں کی فہرستیں بنا کر ان پر کڑی نظر رکھی جاےٗ۔ مسلمان آتش بازوں کے لاہٗسنس معطل کر دیےٗ جایٗں، اور ان کا آتش گیر سٹاک فوری طور پر پولیس کی حفاظت میں لے لیا جاےٰ ۔ وغیرہ، وغیرہ ۔ ھر چیف منسٹر کو نہایت سخت تاکید کی گیٗ تھی کہ وہ ان ہدایات پر ایسی خوش اسلوبی سے عملدرآمد کرے کہ اس سے آبادی کے کسی فرقے کے خلاف کسی کے امتیازی سلوک کا پہلو مترستٓح نہ ہو! بغل میں چھری اور منہ میں رام رام کا اس سے بہتر ظہور چشم تصور میں لانا محال ہے۔

یہ حکمنامہ پڑھ کر مجھے شدید ذہنی دھچکا لگا۔  مہاتما گاندھی کی نام نہاد بے تعصبی کی لنگوٹی باد مخالف کے جھونکوں میں اڑ کر دور جا پڑی، اور وہ اپنے اصلی رنگ و سوغن میں بالکل بہنہ ہوگےٗ۔ اہنسا پرم دھرم کے اس جھوٹے پجاری کے اشاروں پر ناچنے والی انڈین نیسشنل کانگرس کے عزاہٗم مسلمانوں کے خلاف اتنے ہی خطرناک اور سنگین نکلے جتنے کہ ہندومہلسبھایاراشٹریہ سیوک سنگ کے سمجھے جاتے تھےأ بلکہ کانگرس کے سازشانہ منصوبوے دوسری فرقہ وارانہ جماوروں سے بھی زیادہ پر خطر اور ہولناک تھے، کیونکہ ہندوستان کے کیٗ صوبوں میں کانگرس کی حکومت تھی، اور مرکز کی عبوری گورنمنٹ میں ۱۴ میں سے چھ کانگرسی اور مذید دو غیر مسلم وزیر تھے۔ فوج کا محکمہ سردار بلدیو سنگھ کے قبضے میں تھا۔ اور سارا ہندوستالن کی پولیس، سی آی ڈی،ریڈیو اور ذرایعؑ ابلاغ کی مشین سردار دلبھ بھایٗ پٹیل کے متعصبانہ ہاتھوں ممیں تھی۔ اس میں کویٗ شک نہیں کہ کانگرس اپنی قوت کے تمام وساٗل مسلمانوں کا سر کچلنے کے لےٗ ہر طرح کے کیل کانٹے س لیس ہو رہی تھی۔
یہ دستاویزپڑھ کر میرے دل میں ایک عجب سی کشمکش ہوتی رہی۔ ڈپٹی ہوم سیکریٹریکا پیشہ ورانہ ضمیر میرے اندر چھپے ہوےٗ بے عمل، ناقص اور خوابیدہ سے مسلمان کے ضمیرکے ساتھ ٹکرا کیا۔ خدا کا شکر کے کہ تھوڑی سی لڑایٗ کے بعد جیت ٹوٹے پھوٹے مسلمان ہی کی ہویٗ۔ چناچہ میں نے یہ دستاویز اٹھا کر اپنی جیب میں ڈال لی، اور اسی رات قاۃٗد اعظم سے ملاقات کرنے کی نیتّ سے دہلی روانہ ہو گیا۔
 ان دنوں مٹر کے۔ایچ۔ خورشید قاۃٗد اعظم کے پراہٗیوٹ سیکریٹری تھے۔ اگر وہ دہلی میں موجود ہوتے تہ غالباّ مجھے قاہٗد اعظم  سے ملنے میں کوہٗی دقت پیش نہ آتی ۔ لیکن وہ موجود نہ تھے۔  ایک دو روز کی تگ و دو، منت ماجت اور حیلے بہانوں کے بعد آخر بڑی مشکل سے مجھے  قاہٗد اعظم تک رسایٗ حاصل ہویٗ۔  جب میں ان کے کمرے میں داخل ہوا تو بولے، ۔ کیا بات ھے؟ ۔ ـ ۔سر، میں آپ کے لیٗے ایک مفید دستاویز لے کر آیا ہوں۔ میرا نام قدرت اللہ شہاب ہے۔ میں اڑیسہ میں ڈپٹی ہوم سکریٹری ہوں۔ ۔ میں نے ایک ہی سانس میں زیادہ سے زیادہ باتیں کہنے کی کوشش کی۔
۔کیسی دستاویز؟(MAJ)ـ
میں نے آگے بڑھ کر کانگرس کا سرکلر ان کی خدمت میں پیش کیا۔ وہ بڑے سکون سے اسے پڑھتے رھے۔ میں کھڑا ہوا ان کے چہرے کا جاہٗزہ لیتا رہا۔ ان کے جذبات میں ہلکا سا ارتعاش بھی پیدا ہوا ۔ ایک بار پڑھ  چکے تو مجھے کرسی پر بیٹھنے کا اشارہ کیا، اور فرمایا ۔ ۔ ہاں، یہ ہمارے لیےٗ مفید ہو سکتی ھے ۔ ـ
یہ کہہ کر وہ دوبارہ اس کے مطالعے میں مصروف ہو گےٗ۔  اس کے بعد مجھ سے دریافت کیا۔ ـ تم نے کہاں سے حاصل کی ہے؟ ـ
میں نے فر فر ساری کہانی سنا ہٗی۔
(MAJ)ـ ویل ویل ۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔ تمہیں ایسا نہیں کرنا چاہیے تھا ـ
[1]“ This is breach of Trust”
This incident clearly defines his vision, expectation and requirement of a civil servant, where under most crucial situation, when Indian National Congress was conspiring against Pakistan, even before its creation and was cheating its Muslim supporters; he continued to profess Trust and did not approve its breach by a civil servant.
Had the civil servants been dutiful, Pakistan would not have had illegal constructions, encroachments, traffic jams, blatant corruption.  It is these bureaucrats who violated the code of conduct given to them by Quid-e-Azam and involved themselves in protecting violators of building control. It is under their shadows illegal arms came into the cities and it is under their patronization encroachments take place in each and every nuke and corner of this country.
Simple examples of their misdeeds can be seen in everyday life.  Just to enumerate a few:
Professional beggary on the roads of this country is increasing. Their existence on roads is not only nuisance for commuters, but also helps criminals in conducting their activities in broad day light. Laws exist to remove such people from the roads and it is well within the powers of these government servants to enforce it. What is stopping them to take action?  Two reasons either their own vested interest or political pressure; or perhaps combination of both.  There goes vision of Quid which he outlined in 1948.
All cities of this country are full of dangerous, unhealthy and illegal constructions.  Laws exist to control such activities; yet, every day a new structure or business venture is created.  Actions against such constructions are avoided for self-interest and gratification.  Had service preceded self, cities of Pakistan would have been as organized as any other western country.
Traffic menace, especially major cities, is a gift of these civil servants.  Administrators allow encroachments of roads by car dealers, vendors & illegal parking agents. Traffic police is not concerned about violation of traffic rules; rather lead them by example.
This elite class retire as millionaires through ill-gotten wealth and at the end these so called intellectuals become analyst and preach solutions to the problems faced by Pakistan, to which they are the major contributors.
No political government can do corruption without support of bureaucracy. They are the ones who teach them ways to do corruption and support politicians in execution of corrupt plans. If all bureaucrats work as per the vision of Quid; how many can be blacklisted by politicians.  Lovers of power corridor cannot damage infrastructure of their own salvation as politicians. No doubt, difficulties will arise, but that is what will turn Quid-e-Azam’s dream into reality.
‘I tell you that you will not remain on the black list if you discharge your duties honestly, sincerely and loyally to the state. It is you who can give us the opportunity to create a powerful machinery which will give you complete sense of security.’ M A Jinnah 




[1] Shahabnama 29th Edition 2005 Page 265-267

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Fair and Reasonable Taxation

Fair and Reasonable Taxation

According to CIA statistics, Pakistan’s a per capita income is estimated at US$2900[1]. Considering this income calculated on a population of 160 million indicates a consolidated number of US$ 464 billion. Current exchange rate applied to this figure, corresponds to PKR 46 trillion. Theoretically speaking, Government of Pakistan can earn revenue of PKR4600 Billion for fiscal year 2013-14 by collecting 10% income tax on PKR46 Trillion, which is PKR 614 Billion more then Budget 2013-14 projected expense of PKR3985.4 Billion.
Unfortunately, this simple trick to have surplus income cannot be implemented.  Sixty percent of Pakistan's population is living below poverty line[2]. International poverty line is at income of two dollars or PKR 200 a day.  Total Income of 60% Pakistanis (living below poverty line) is approximately US$70 billion per annum; it is their right to claim tax exemption. Tax Exemption for population below poverty line leaves PKR45.9Trillion as taxable income.  Thus 40% of Pakistan population falls in the ambit of tax net, equaling 64 million people.
An average Pakistani household has under 4 members; for calculation sake, considering 6 member per household with one earning member (2007-2008 figures)[3], 16 million people earn PKR 45.9 Trillion in Pakistan, whereas only 1.7 million pay taxes i.e. 10%. According to budget it is estimated that an amount of PKR914 Billion will be collected under income tax. These statistics indicate that PKR914 billion is contributed by 10% of tax payers. Question arises where does remaining 90% tax payers have gone and why they are not paying any income tax. 
%age of Tax Payers
Tax Paid in PKR Billion
10% (A)
914
90% (B)
914X9 = 8226
Total Budget Expense (C)
3985.4
Surplus (A+B-C)
5154.6

Both the above scenarios indicate sufficient revenue generation with reasonable tax rate, no sales tax, and enough surplus to support high investment projects like bullet trains underground subways, better health and education facilities for all.   It will also provide relief to those who are already paying taxes and have been taxed directly or indirectly 30- 40% in current budget revenue generation schemes.
Finance Minister in his budget speech stated that regular tax payers have not been taxed any further; yet, bottom line remains that those paying taxes have been taxed further.   Lets have a look at the gift government has given to genuine tax payers.
“Final Tax Regime” was introduced by Gen (R)Pervaiz Musharaf; prior to FTR, surplus income tax deposited / deducted was never refunded, at least not to original tax payers.  “Final Tax Regime” came as a relief to genuine tax payers, where withholding agents were authorized to give tax credit based on evidence provided.  Withdrawal of Final Tax Regime will burden those who pay taxes and file return regularly. Under present scheme each year tax withheld would invariably be more then the obligation. History suggests that this surplus amount will never be reimbursed, at least not to the original payer.  It has opened gates to yet another way of syphoning public money by holders of public offices and provides opportunity to corrupt officials to exercise their powers in self-interest.
Wealth tax was withdrawn in Gen (R) Musharaf’s era on the pretext of double taxation, as wealth declared is after tax has been paid. Those who have black money do not declare their wealth in “Wealth Statement”.  In current budget an Income Support Levy has been imposed at the rate of 0.5% on all moveable assets above one million, that too w.e.f. from June 2013.  It is a known fact that Wealth Statement is filed by only those who pay income tax and file IT return. Thus, genuine tax payers are squeezed yet again to compensate for those who evade tax.
Profit earned by Corporates is distributed among shareholders; most of the time these are individuals who have invested money and are enjoying return on their investment, in shape of dividends.  Finance Bill 2013-14 has reduced tax rate for Corporates by 1%.  Thus, benefit is for those, whose majority does not works and rely on income from dividend.  On the other hand, burden to meet short fall has been shifted on regular tax payers, especially salaried class.
Engro paid PKR2,015 million as tax for year 2012, at a tax rate of 35%.  If, Engro’s taxable income is same for 2013, it will have tax liability less by one percent, against 2012.  This reduction in tax rate will allow Engro PKR57.57 Million an additional after tax profit, which ultimately goes to shareholders as dividend.  To compensate for this amount, a large number of salaried tax payers have to contribute. A sample of salaried people required to compensate for this short fall is:
Monthly Salary
Number of  Salaried Person needed to cater for PKR 57.57 Billion
Monthly Salary
Number of  Salaried Person needed to cater for PKR 57.57 Billion
35,000
57,570
100,000
853


40,000
14,393
150,000
411


50,000
4,606
200,000
245


60,000
2,678
300,000
118


70,000
1,828
400,000
71


80,000
1,323
500,000
51



Had corporates been taxed by another 1%, relief could be vice-e-versa.  Such measures of giving relief to Corporates are expressive of rulers’ mentality, competence and intentions. This is case of a single Corporate.  A large number of public and private limited companies operate in Pakistan and earn profits in billions.
Government had been showing intent to increase tax net since long. However, practically the pace of including all eligible tax payers in tax net is rather slow. This slow process is because of multiple reasons like political influence and corrupt tax officials. 
An out of the box thinking can change perspective of complete income tax system.  At one hand, all direct and indirect taxes can be abolished in one go and on the other maximum number of people can be brought in tax net. A simple system can replace prevailing complicated and inefficient system, yet effective enough to generate sufficient funds. Implementation of such system should not be any problem in this era of technology.
Solution to a simple and efficient tax collection system is three step formula.
1.       Abolish prevailing income tax, sales tax, FED, Income Support levy etc.  and implement Final Tax Regime.
2.       Implement policy of no cash transaction for amounts more than PKR5000. The policy already exists for corporates, which should be extended it to individual as well.
3.       Put a tax of 2% on all (in and out) transactions through banks.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan total amount transacted through banks between July-Sept’12 was PKR 40.549 Trillion[4]. It can be safely estimated that PKR162.199 trillion was transacted in year 2012. Thus, PKR3.24 Trillion can be collected as full and final income tax.  By ensuring all transactions above PKR5,000 through banking channel will increase amount bank transactions by at least 100%.  It can be safely estimated that through this procedure government will be able to collect more than PKR 6 trillion per year.  It will bring maximum number of people in the tax net and allow participation of tax payers towards national development. No further taxation will be required by the government, whatsoever.  It does not require any explanation as to what will be the effect of such taxation system, yet few benefits are outlined
1.       Negative inflation of 15-20% will be observed in first year of implementation, which would be an instant relief to each and every citizen of Pakistan.
2.       No one will escape tax net and country will have well documented economy.
3.       Equal percentage and proportionate contribution by maximum number of taxpayers will be ensured.
4.       Requirement for higher denomination currency notes will reduce, thus circulation of black money can be controlled by removing PKR5000 and PKR 1000 currency notes from market.
5.       Less cash with people will also help in reducing crime rate.
Why our financial and economic gurus do not come up with simple things rather then complex and intricate methods of squeezing those who have already been squeezed.